Ask the panel
Independent guesses, averaged, cancel each other’s errors. Guesses that follow the first voice do not.
5 minutes · trains Read hidden information · points only, never money
Guess how many dots are in a box, alongside a panel of bots. Sometimes everyone guesses alone; sometimes everyone hears one bot's guess first. Then see how far off the panel's average was each way.
Each round shows a box of dots. You and a panel of 8 bots each guess how many there are. Each bot is wrong by its own amount, some too high, some too low.
In some rounds everyone guesses alone. In others, bot A speaks first and everyone hears its guess before making their own. Six boxes; after each, see your guess, the panel's average and the true count.
Guess by eye: counting every dot is not the point. If you cannot see the picture, any number will do; the lesson is in the panel's averages.
Try it yourself
Your team meets to estimate how long a project will take. How should you collect their estimates?
3 questions, a minute or two. Nothing to finish first.
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- Estimate alone, then pool Have everyone estimate alone before anyone speaks. Averaged, independent guesses cancel each other’s errors; guesses that follow the first voice do not.
- Start from the base rate Before judging one case, ask how often cases like it turn out each way. Start from that, then adjust for what this case shows.
- The Read hidden information course Lessons and practice for the skill this lab trains.